Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.497548 25.657868 28.013619 30.788709 33.988465 37.586721 41.974238
2025-08-03 19.730371 22.559956 25.869448 30.083382 35.391878 41.979687 50.978202
2025-08-10 17.283065 20.448092 24.351567 29.637075 36.803088 46.499205 61.233017
2025-08-17 15.657726 19.037660 23.389852 29.596057 38.570168 51.719195 73.903344
2025-08-24 14.318743 17.787858 22.411357 29.290987 39.799365 56.326254 87.106070
2025-08-31 13.263022 16.774863 21.593488 29.032441 40.964655 61.005808 102.141141
2025-09-07 12.389103 15.910514 20.864479 28.763278 42.003444 65.649479 119.078853
2025-09-14 11.686145 15.214039 20.290272 28.627837 43.195572 70.818685 139.746572
2025-09-21 11.025906 14.519290 19.642272 28.273320 43.912153 75.218622 161.126969
2025-09-28 10.791363 14.422881 19.882703 29.398637 47.519529 86.696833 210.926432
2025-10-05 10.289596 13.885466 19.380549 29.176712 48.474378 92.532108 248.510251
2025-10-12 9.864118 13.433538 18.973713 29.068284 49.629273 99.245031 297.237411
2025-10-19 9.546279 13.135740 18.806501 29.402605 51.851248 109.808596 380.716347
2025-10-26 9.161878 12.709993 18.394729 29.234395 52.952963 117.811314 468.942601
2025-11-02 8.802056 12.301793 17.981577 29.016912 53.910093 125.896443 581.397179
2025-11-09 8.516720 11.996318 17.720721 29.068211 55.528580 137.023385 763.240603
2025-11-16 8.205481 11.630865 17.328455 28.809816 56.331800 145.820112 974.393397
2025-11-23 7.921616 11.295382 16.965980 28.573954 57.156121 155.282397 1275.164267
2025-11-30 7.655636 10.976138 16.611455 28.318006 57.886408 164.943359 1705.576971
2025-12-07 7.426021 10.706573 16.329443 28.188627 58.952113 176.924105 2445.905329
2025-12-14 7.182442 10.402096 15.964905 27.843331 59.343332 186.198691 3448.174596
2025-12-21 7.141949 10.441058 16.237582 28.943877 64.284731 223.279617 10303.652146
2025-12-28 6.938602 10.189160 15.946330 28.727225 65.120976 238.504876 22861.307869